Market Monitor Features:
Market Dashboard
Fixed Income
Equities
Commodities
Source for data tables: Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Gramercy. EM Fixed Income is represented by the following JPMorgan Indicies: EMBI Global, GBI-EM Global Diversified, CEMBI Broad Diversified and CEMBI Broad High Yield. DM Fixed Income is represented by the JPMorgan JULI Total Return Index and Domestic High Yield Index. Fixed Income data is as of August 20, 2020, Equity and Commodity data is as of August 21, 2020 (Midday).
Emerging Market Sovereign Primary Issuance
Emerging Market Corporate Primary Issuance
Emerging Market Credit – EMBI Global Diversified
Emerging Market Local – GBI-EM Global Diversified
EM Investment Grade vs US Investment Grade
EM High Yield vs US High Yield
EM Investment Grade vs EM High Yield
EM Sovereigns vs EM Corporates
Flow Tracker – Monthly Data
Flow Tracker – Annual Data
Source for graphs: Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Gramercy. As of August 21, 2020.
Emerging Markets COVID-19 Case Summary
Source: Worldometer as of August 21, 2020.
Global Economic Forecasts
IMF April 2020 World Economic Outlook
Market Consensus
High Frequency
Gramercy Insight:
In late June the IMF made major downward revisions to its global, regional and country growth projections and market consensus is in the process of catching up to the Fund’s expected nearly 5% contraction in global growth and weaker recovery in 2021. We maintain our view that despite the material growth downgrades thus far and recent stronger high frequency data, downside risks remain, given challenges associated with reopening strategies and lack of clarity regarding the outlook for COVID-19.
Preliminary Composite PMI data for August sent contradictory signals: it rebounded strongly in the US, while pulling back in the Eurozone, albeit still in +50 territory. China’s composite PMI has been >50 since May. Amid gradual reopening strategies, tracking of consumer behavior and mobility will be an important leading indicator in determining the strength and timing of economic recovery going forward.
Emerging Markets Sovereign Fundamentals
Emerging Markets Corporate Fundamentals
Additional Crisis Resources:
Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Case Tracker
Please contact Matt Christ, Managing Director, with any questions: [email protected]
This document is for informational purposes only. The information presented is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Gramercy may have current investment positions in the securities or sovereigns mentioned above. The information and opinions contained in this paper are as of the date of initial publication, derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Gramercy to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. This paper may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this paper is at the sole discretion of the reader. You should not rely on this presentation as the basis upon which to make an investment decision. Investment involves risk. There can be no assurance that investment objectives will be achieved. Investors must be prepared to bear the risk of a total loss of their investment. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging/developing markets or smaller capital markets. International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation, and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The information provided herein is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation.