The world enters 2025 facing a consequential economic challenge: It must broaden its growth engines amid high debt, large deficits, and unusual policy uncertainties. Meeting this challenge is integral to maintaining the shield against harmful spillovers from messy geopolitical conditions. It is also closely related to unleashing productivity opportunities associated with exciting innovations in transformational sectors such as technology and life sciences.
Thanks to consistently accommodating financial conditions, the relatively elevated market valuations of recent months have been able to sideline these uncertainties, benefiting instead from the attractive prospect of a U.S. soft landing AND sizeable Fed rate cuts in the next 12 months. This is also why we believe that cautious security selection and solid structuring are key to the resilient portfolios needed to navigate what on the surface appears to be a favorable equilibrium, but underneath, has notable elements of potential volatility.
…we believe the upcoming easing cycle by the Federal Reserve represents a significant opportunity for EM debt. Historically, EM debt has performed well following U.S. rate cuts, and with EM central banks likely to lower rates to stimulate growth, the asset class is well-positioned for strong returns. Attractive yields, supported by solid fundamentals and a rebound in global risk sentiment, further enhance its appeal…
Our guiding principles of resilience, optionality, and agility, or “ROA,” will steer us toward achieving our desired returns without committing non-recoverable mistakes. By adhering to our strategy of “planning the trade and trading the plan,” we intend to continue to navigate and leverage market volatility to our advantage, thus providing a better approach to emerging markets.
The evidence of a challenging “last mile” in the advanced countries’ battle against inflation, and the backup in government yields that came with that, did not dent the impressive asset price rally that started last October. Neither did news that Germany, Japan, and the UK had fallen into recession, the tragic prolongation of deadly wars, or the heavy election calendar.
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Our affiliate, Gramercy Ltd., is a limited company organized under the laws of the United Kingdom and registered with U.K. Financial Conduct Authority which has been delegated certain portfolio management services, including but not limited to investment advice and execution of trades. The activities of Gramercy Ltd. provide for the benefit of additional trade coverage and risk management functions.
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